Strong and Capable
NOTE: this analysis was written for my job application with a private intelligence firm. Sharing it here with you.
The Philippines is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow up. The recent situation in Iraq is but a small sign of this fact and reminds us once again of the great, fundamental weakness of the Philippines--- its uncertain political landscape that is the root cause of its equally unstable economy. Undoubtedly the Bush Administration has been reminded of this reality and this uncertainty caused by taking the politically expedient route is a cancer that the Philippines must address. Manila must take great reforms to fix its problems by getting its act together for it to play its part in fighting terrorism.
Would it have made a fundamental difference had the Philippines stayed in Iraq? For the American campaign against terror and the greater stability of Iraq, yes--- the fight against terror goes well. For the Philippines, more uncertainty at home.
Today, is there any fundamental difference because the Philippines chose to abandon its commitment? With the exception of the damaged relationship between Manila and Washington and perhaps a slowing down of aid to Manila by America, which the Philippines can live with in the long term, then the answer is none.
This choice however has some interesting and positive implications for the Philippines and for the world--- if Mrs. Arroyo and her government can successfully pull it off.
The immediate term problem for the Philippines is their financial situation as it is bordering on disaster. The perception given by Manila is that it would try to solve that first. How fast, is the question. The Philippines is not exactly a country where things are done quickly in spite of the expediency the situation may require. Whatever solutions the Philippine government can enact in the short term with regard to their financial situation would, at best be patchwork. The bigger picture can only be solved by and if the Philippines chooses to re-engineer how it does business and shakes up how it runs its government.
With the clear signal from Mrs. Arroyo herself during her recent State of the Nation address to the Philippine Congress, all signs point to the fact that the Philippines is willing to reform and enact changes in its Constitution. Those reforms are long overdue and may open doors of opportunity for the Philippines but such changes must take into account the Philippine reality.
Details pertaining to any Constitutional change in the Philippines are of course still to be formulated and such matter shall certainly be hotly debated. One item under consideration is a Federal form of government for the Philippines and the decentralization of “imperial Manila”.
If reforms are made and the transfer of the flow of money to the local level instituted, local governments would be empowered to enact swift reforms in health care, in education, in peace and order and shall have the ability to generate income and improve job creation in each province. This will reduce the big problem of the Philippines to many yet smaller, more manageable ones.
The insurgency problem that has plagued the country from Muslim extremists and from the Communist Party will be defeated once and for all with the rise in quality of living. Terror will lose a pool of easily manipulated and willing recruits.
Structural changes in the way the Philippine government work, may in time reduce the chronic graft and corruption that has plagued it and that has created additional uncertainty in doing business with and in the Philippines. Such change can spur a vibrant economy and greater opportunities for Filipinos. When essential resources at the grass roots level, Filipinos will be stronger at home and more capable abroad.
Is this at all realistic? Factions in Arroyo's party are working actively towards a change in the Philippine Constitution. Arroyo has the mandate and clearly the voting numbers in both chambers of Congress and the Filipino when presented with a credible reform agenda will jump for it. The question is, how much control does she have over her party's leadership to enact credible reforms? Therein her leadership shall be tested.
Recent events clearly highlight the fundamental weakness of the Philippines but this weakness also tells us how important free, strong, vibrant nations are needed in order to win the war on terror. They must address this weakness and get their act together. Only by being politically and economically stable at home can the Philippines (and any nation for that matter) become a reliable, strong, true and vital partner in the fight against terror because to fight it means not just using guns, bombs and good intelligence but also the ability to provide every person equal opportunity to surpass their potential and drown out their fears. Is that not the goal of democracy and freedom?
The Philippines is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow up. The recent situation in Iraq is but a small sign of this fact and reminds us once again of the great, fundamental weakness of the Philippines--- its uncertain political landscape that is the root cause of its equally unstable economy. Undoubtedly the Bush Administration has been reminded of this reality and this uncertainty caused by taking the politically expedient route is a cancer that the Philippines must address. Manila must take great reforms to fix its problems by getting its act together for it to play its part in fighting terrorism.
Would it have made a fundamental difference had the Philippines stayed in Iraq? For the American campaign against terror and the greater stability of Iraq, yes--- the fight against terror goes well. For the Philippines, more uncertainty at home.
Today, is there any fundamental difference because the Philippines chose to abandon its commitment? With the exception of the damaged relationship between Manila and Washington and perhaps a slowing down of aid to Manila by America, which the Philippines can live with in the long term, then the answer is none.
This choice however has some interesting and positive implications for the Philippines and for the world--- if Mrs. Arroyo and her government can successfully pull it off.
The immediate term problem for the Philippines is their financial situation as it is bordering on disaster. The perception given by Manila is that it would try to solve that first. How fast, is the question. The Philippines is not exactly a country where things are done quickly in spite of the expediency the situation may require. Whatever solutions the Philippine government can enact in the short term with regard to their financial situation would, at best be patchwork. The bigger picture can only be solved by and if the Philippines chooses to re-engineer how it does business and shakes up how it runs its government.
With the clear signal from Mrs. Arroyo herself during her recent State of the Nation address to the Philippine Congress, all signs point to the fact that the Philippines is willing to reform and enact changes in its Constitution. Those reforms are long overdue and may open doors of opportunity for the Philippines but such changes must take into account the Philippine reality.
Details pertaining to any Constitutional change in the Philippines are of course still to be formulated and such matter shall certainly be hotly debated. One item under consideration is a Federal form of government for the Philippines and the decentralization of “imperial Manila”.
If reforms are made and the transfer of the flow of money to the local level instituted, local governments would be empowered to enact swift reforms in health care, in education, in peace and order and shall have the ability to generate income and improve job creation in each province. This will reduce the big problem of the Philippines to many yet smaller, more manageable ones.
The insurgency problem that has plagued the country from Muslim extremists and from the Communist Party will be defeated once and for all with the rise in quality of living. Terror will lose a pool of easily manipulated and willing recruits.
Structural changes in the way the Philippine government work, may in time reduce the chronic graft and corruption that has plagued it and that has created additional uncertainty in doing business with and in the Philippines. Such change can spur a vibrant economy and greater opportunities for Filipinos. When essential resources at the grass roots level, Filipinos will be stronger at home and more capable abroad.
Is this at all realistic? Factions in Arroyo's party are working actively towards a change in the Philippine Constitution. Arroyo has the mandate and clearly the voting numbers in both chambers of Congress and the Filipino when presented with a credible reform agenda will jump for it. The question is, how much control does she have over her party's leadership to enact credible reforms? Therein her leadership shall be tested.
Recent events clearly highlight the fundamental weakness of the Philippines but this weakness also tells us how important free, strong, vibrant nations are needed in order to win the war on terror. They must address this weakness and get their act together. Only by being politically and economically stable at home can the Philippines (and any nation for that matter) become a reliable, strong, true and vital partner in the fight against terror because to fight it means not just using guns, bombs and good intelligence but also the ability to provide every person equal opportunity to surpass their potential and drown out their fears. Is that not the goal of democracy and freedom?
posted by Cocoy at
Friday, August 06, 2004
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